I'm sure you don't need me to tell you what a boneheaded decision Chris Christie made with regard to the upcoming special election to replace Senator Frank Lautenberg.
Facing a reelection campaign in a blue state, Christie didn't want to anger Democrats by appointing a placeholder Republican and postponing the election until 2014; on the other hand, he wasn't going to alienate Republicans whose votes he wants in a 2016 presidential campaign by appointing a Democrat. And yet he didn't want the popular Democrat Cory Booker on the ballot this November as he's running for reelection. So he scheduled a special election a few weeks before the election he's running in -- and that's a big waste of money, which makes a mockery of his fiscal conservative image, particularly among his fellow Republicans. ("I think this ends his 2016 chances. It's year after year with this guy," says a Republican official quoted by National Journal.)
But what the hell is Christie afraid of?
Is he afraid he might lose in November? Check the polls. Before Hurricane Sandy and the Obama bro moment, Christie led Democrat Barbara Buono by 16 points in Quinnipiac poll. After Sandy? Christie has led Buono by anywhere from 30 to 43 points in thirteen consecutive polls. So if Booker on the ballot brings out a few voters who don't like Christie and who otherwise might not have shown up at the polls, what the hell difference does it make? Maybe Christie wins by 15 rather than 30. So what?
I know, I know: He wants a huge victory. A huge victory will show that he has the juice to be the GOP presidential nominee in 2016.
You know who went into the 2012 GOP presidential campaign coming off a huge victory? Jon freaking Huntsman. He was reelected as governor of Utah in 2008 with 77.7% of the vote. Fat lot of good it did him.
By contrast, do you remember who was the last guy standing against Mitt Romney in the 2012 primaries? Rick Santorum -- a guy who'd lost his last race by 18 points.
The idea thAT you need a huge victory to set the table for a presidential run is something only political pros and mavens think about -- the public doesn't care. And in fact, if you're running in a Republican primary, it probably helps not to run up a big victory. Win too many independent and Democratic votes and the GOP base will really think you're a filthy RINO. (Which, of course, already Christie's problem.)
And how much of a threat would Booker's presence on the ballot be to Christie anyway? National Journal says:
With Booker as the favored Democratic Senate nominee, less-reliable Democratic voters, particularly African-Americans, would be more likely to show up at the polls.Here's an interesting thing I found in a February Quinnipiac poll: Booker's favorability rating among African-Americans in New Jersey is not much higher (67%) than his favorability among whites (58%). He's not Barack Obama -- at least not yet. He's more like Barack Obama before the 2008 primaries. (Remember when it seemed as if he might have to battle Hillary Clinton for the African-American vote?)
So Christie didn't have the guts to be on the ballot with Booker. And now he looks gutless.
