• FL-04- Ander Crenshaw- R+19Obama beat Romney 53-47% in FL-27 and 50-49% in FL-13. Crenshaw is unassailable and Bilirakis is safe as well. It would probably take a two-cycle action plan to dislodge Diaz-Balart, although the masterminds at the DCCC don't ever, under any circumstances, think in terms beyond one term. So he's safe. And that leaves Dave Jolly and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen.
• FL-12- Gus Bilirakis- R+7
• FL-13- David Jolly- R+1
• FL-25- Mario Diaz-Balart- R+5
• FL-27- Ileana Ros-Lehtinen- R+2
We've been discussing DCCC Chair Steve Israel's incompetent throwing away of FL-13 by forcing Pinellas NAACP president Manuel Sykes out of the primary for a flawed conservative with a padded résumé, Ed Jany, who then bowed out within hours of being gratuitously added to the once vaunted/now debased Red-to-Blue program. So now, Israel has managed to piss off Pinellas County African-American voters and progressive voters and has no candidate in a blue-trending district to run against a vulnerable and fatally flawed ex-lobbyist. And, no, Nancy Pelosi has not fired Steve Israel from the DCCC.
One of his worst recruits from the last cycle, Val Demings, who lost to cult christo-fascist Dan Webster in 2012, announced-- rather suddenly yesterday-- that she's withdrawing from the race for mayor of Orange County. She said "this is just not the right race at this time," although sh'e been running-- and soliciting contributions-- since January. Nevermind that this leaves the Democrats with no candidate in a county where they outnumber Republicans by over 100,000 voters… this is all about Val. And Val wants to run for Congress, not mayor. In her lame press release she described herself like this: "Demings is considered to be a rising star in Florida Democratic politics." And that speaks to how utterly dysfunctional the Democratic Party of Florida is.
And, in line with that dysfunction, state Party boss, Debbie Wasserman Schultz has made it clear for years that she will not countenance anyone running against her old friend and ally, Republican Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, even if Lehtinen's district is now quite blue and one of the top 3 districts increases the share of votes it gave Obama from 2008 to 2012. McCain actually won the district 123,543 (51%) to 120,028 (49%), only to see a huge reversal in 2012-- Obama, 130,020 (53%) to Romney, 114,096 (47%). When Obama was cleaning Romney's clock in Miami-Dade, Wasserman Schultz and Israel had made sure there wouldn't be a viable Democrat fighting Ros-Lehtinen. They drafted a mysterious fake candidate, Manny Yevancey, whose job was not to run as a Democrat, just to make sure no one else could. This year, they didn't even have to do that. They just discouraged anyone even looking in Ileana's direction-- even though Ileana is vulnerable to various ethics and corruption charges.
