Monday we asserted-- and we stand by it-- that there's no legitimate reason to assume Shenna Bellows can't defeat Susan Collins in Maine. Although she vowed to Maine voters, she would only seek the Senate seat twice, she's embarking on her fourth run. And she's not even that popular. How does Susan Collins’ 2008 re-election vote (61%) compare with other Maine Senate elections? In 2006 (also a good year for Democrats) Olympia Snowe’s re-election vote was 13% higher at 74%! And looking urther back, Snowe's 2000 vote of 69% exceeded Collins’ 2002 vote of 58%, and Snowe's Snowe’s 1994 vote of 60% exceeded Collins’ 1996 vote of 49%.
Collins' vote percentages have been modest by comparison with those of other Maine incumbent Senators and, historically, when it’s time for a change, Maine and other New England swing voters swing hard. When is it usually time for a change? After 3 terms. NONE of the Maine Senators went for a 4th term and ALL of them were more popular than Collins. This may be coincidental; they may all have had personal reasons for calling it a day after 18 years. But perhaps it also signals a recognition that voters in Maine eventual tire of even popular incumbents. In any case, we don't have data on what happens in a fourth-term Senate race in Maine… at least not yet. Collins attempt to hold the seat this year will be the first anymone has tried it.
Things one can do after 18 years in the Senate:
• Make peace in Northern Ireland and the Middle East (like George Mitchell)What will Senator Collins do in 24 years that she hasn’t done in 18?
• Cross the aisle to become Secretary of Defense (like Bill Cohen)
• Join the Bipartisan Policy Center’s Commission on Political Reform (like Olympia Snowe)
• Let the next generation try new solutions (like all of the above)
• Seek to extend 18 years to 24
Maine has term limits for both governor (2 x 4 yr. terms) and for members of the legislature (4 x 2 year terms). Mainers seem particularly open to the idea that Collins has had her turn. She's won in the past thanks largely to Democratic and independent voters, who have been willing to vote for her in the "spirit of bipartisanship." Plenty are now saying, "I won't do that again." Understanding that doing that again could empower a Senate takeover by Mitch McConnell and his radical right agenda gives Democrats and independents a good reason to pause. Enenrolled voters tend to be particularly unimpressed by career politicians. With Congress's low popularity, there's a strong sentiment to "throw them all out," and in this case Shenna benefits by being a candidate with strong credentials but no DC baggage.
The DSCC is not putting Collins' seat in Maine or the open Senate seat in South Dakota on the table. They're ignoring Shenna's race and they're ignoring Rick Weiland's race, two of the candidates most in tune with the Democratic grassroots. The DSCC, a strictly Beltway organization with the most tenuous ties to the United States, would rather play games by backing an anti-Choice, anti-gay, corporate whore in deep red Mississippi than go to bat for two true blue candidates who are in states where voters are accustoned-- unlike in Mississippi-- to vote for Democrats. If you'd like to help, Shenna's campaign-- and Rick Weiland's-- are both on this page. We can do this… the Inside-the-Beltway careerists never will.
