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| DCCC will never win back the House until they get Republicans like this out of Democratic seats-- but that means recruiting candidates and fighting to win-- which Steve Israel refuses to do |
More interesting are the 8 Jumpstart candidates who are not on the Red-to-Blue list. What happened to these eager-beaver Steve Israel devotees?
• Pete Aguilar (CA-31/PVI- D+5)Aguilar is losing to Eloise Reyes and the DCCC unendorsed him and put the district into a new category that makes no sense called "Red to Blue districts." Aside from CA-31, a blue open seat with a retiring Republican incumbent, the other 2 Red to Blue districts are IA-01 (PVI- D+5), which Democrat Bruce Braley is leaving to run for the U.S. Senate and ME-02 (PVI- D+2), which Mike Michaud is leaving to run for governor of Maine. So it's more like Blue-to-Blue. In any case, Aguilar's inclusion is a wonderful acknowledgement of progressive action against Israel's empty suit and on behalf of grassroots activist Eloise Reyes, especially by Xavier Becerra, Hilda Solis and Lucille Roybal-Allard. Clearly, Israel was made to understand he was backing the wrong horse and needed too step away from the primary.
• Michael Eggman (CA-10/PVI- R+1)
• Sean Eldridge (NY-19/PVI- D+1)
• Jennifer Garrison (OH-06/PVI- R+8)
• Bobbie McKenzie (MI-11/PVI- R+4)
• Suzanne Patrick (VA-02/PVI- R+2)
• Kevin Strouse (PA-08/PVI- R+1)
• James Lee Witt (AR-04/PVI- R+15)
Five other inferior Israel recruits were demoted to "Emerging Races," a second-tier list that the DCCC defines as one that "highlights candidates and districts that are making themselves competitive by running smart campaigns which are becoming increasingly competitive." The 5 ex-Jumpstarters that got pushed onto that list were James Lee Witt (AR-04), Michael Eggman (CA-10), Sean Eldridge (NY-19), Jennifer Garrison (OH-06), Suzanne Patrick (VA-02). I reached out to all those campaigns and none would make an on-the-record comment. One campaign staffer blamed Israel for leading his candidate "down the garden path… The DCCC dictated our whole campaign, from shitty consultants to what we could and couldn't talk about in regard to issues… And now he strung us up and left us twisting in the wind… This is one district they just gave up to the Republicans." Another campaign, Sean Eldridge's, where they refused to talk with me, must be equally furious, since Eldridge bought a new house in the district-- though he still lives in a tony NYC loft-- and contributed $715,000 of his own money so far. For 7 candidates their inclusion on the Emerging Races list is looked at as a positive development since they weren't included in the Jumpstart program at all:
• Jackie McPherson (AR-01/PVI- R+14)One step down the ladder from Emerging Races is Emerging Districts and there are 4 included: MI-11 (a really awful demotion for Jumpstarter Bobby McKenzie), NC-02 (probably a real letdown for Clay Aiken, not the kind of candidate and cultural icon a Beltway hack like Israel can understand), PA-06 and PA-08. In PA-08, it was a devastating blow for Israel Jumpstart recruit Kevin Strouse and a huge boom for the grassroots candidate, Shauhnessy Naughton. No doubt it also stung the Republican who Israel had encouraged to run as a Democrat in PA-06, Mike Parrish. Brittany Foster reported on it for PoliticsPA from a Pennsylvania perspective.
• Lee Rogers (CA-25/PVI- R+3)
• Jim Mowrer (IA-04/PVI- R+5)
• Bill Hughes (NJ-02/PVI- D+1)
• Aaron Woolf (NY-21/PVI- even)
• Michael Wager (OH-14/PVI- R+4)
• Nick Casey (WV-02/PVI- R+11)
Kevin Strouse and Shaughnessy Naughton are duking it out in their primary. According to the DCCC, Emerging Districts are the third tier of the list they put out. Red to Blue seats are those where the DCCC offers them financial, communications, grassroots, and strategic support. Emerging Races highlights candidates and districts that are making themselves competitive by running smart campaigns which are becoming increasingly competitive. And Emerging Districts are just a smidge below, more of a watch list for the DCCC before they commit serious resources.As we pointed out Tuesday, there are at least 17 Republican districts (the magic number) that Israel is refusing to contest, where Obama won in either 2008 and/or 2012. Each is far more fertile ground for Democratic wins than many of the absurd races Israel is running his lame Blue Dogs and New Dems in. The DCCC has no chance-- none whatsoever-- of taking back the House majority unless Pelosi forces Israel to vigorously contest these races as well:
The candidates mentioned on the list seemed grateful and considered it a sign of strength.
“We’re excited about the momentum we are creating in such a short-time,” said Mike Parrish. “We continue to hit benchmarks and reach out to voters in this district that want something different than a career politician like Ryan Costello in Washington.”
The other PA-6 Democrat was equally pleased.
“National Democrats certainly see great potential in turning this seat from Republican to Democrat,” Trivedi’s campaign spokesman Daren Berringer told PoliticsPA. “They’re taking their lead from local Democratic parties who have overwhelming endorsed Manan Trivedi and it’s an encouraging sign for the rest of the election year for us.”
In PA-8, Naughton’s campaign was particularly enthused, given that the DCCC had previously been strongly behind Strouse, putting him on their Jumpstart list early last year.
“The only way to beat [Fitzpatrick] and put us back on the path to prosperity for the middle class is with a candidate who knows this district as well as he does, who understands the issues that Bucks and Montgomery County residents face, and who presents a real contrast on the issues,” Naughtons’ campaign manager Josh Morrow said. “Only one candidate in this race has said we should never allow fracking in the Delaware River Basin and only one candidate in this race has articulated a plan to save social security. That candidate is Shaughnessy Naughton.”
Strouse’s campaign didn’t take the listing as a demotion.
“We are excited for the national recognition that Kevin Strouse is bringing to the 8th District as the only candidate who can go toe-to-toe with Congressman Fitzpatrick in the fall and win. Kevin’s record of service as an Army Ranger who put his life on the line defending American values is a stark contrast between Congressman Fitzpatrick’s record of shutdowns and plant closures,” Strouse’s campaign manager Brendan McPhillips said. “We are pleased to be recognized for the hard work Kevin has put in traveling across the district and talking to voters about how we need to raise the minimum wage, invest in infrastructure, and create an environment that will produce more good paying jobs here in the district.”
Meanwhile, the National Republican Campaign Committee saw the list as a withdrawal from these Pennsylvania races.
“It seems like it wasn’t too long ago when the DCCC was sending fundraising emails saying that Kevin Strouse was the key to Nancy Pelosi becoming Speaker of the House again,” NRCC spokesman Ian Prior told PoliticsPA. “Now it looks like Pelosi and the DCCC are finally coming out of their delusional state and realizing that a stagnant economy, the Obamacare train wreck, and weak Democrat candidates in PA-06 and 08 are going to make those two House seats unattainable for Democrats in November.”
• NY-02, Peter King- R+1 (Obama won in 2008 and 2012)
• MI-06, Fred Upton- R+1 (Obama won in 2008)
• WA-08, Dave Reichert- R+1 (Obama won in 2008 and 2012)
• FL-27, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen- R+2 (Obama won in 2012)
• WI-07, Sean Duffy- R+2 (Obama won in 2008)
• WI-08, Reid Ribble- R+2 (Obama won in 2008)
• MN-03, Erik Paulsen- R+2 (Obama won in 2008 and 2012)
• PA-07, Patrick Meehan- R+2 (Obama won in 2008)
• MN-02, John Kline- R+2 (Obama won in 2008 and 2012)
• PA-15, Charlie Dent- R+2 (Obama won in 2008)
• MI-08, Mike Rogers- R+2 (Obama won in 2008)
• WA-03, Jaime Herrera Beutler- R+2 (Obama won in 2008)
• WI-01, Paul Ryan- R+3 (Obama won in 2008)
• IL-06, Peter Roskam- R+4 (Obama won in 2008)
• PA-16, Joseph Pitts- R+4 (Obama won in 2008)
• CA-49, Darrell Issa- R+4 (Obama won in 2008)
• IL-16, Adam Kinzinger- R+4 (Obama won in 2008)
