This week, a CBO analysis found that an increase in the minimum wage from $7.25/hr to $10.10/hr would lift 900,000 workers out of poverty and increase wages for about 16.5 million. However, it would also "reduce total employment by about 500,000 workers." This comes on the heels of a CBO report that determined that one impact of Obamacare was a reduction in the number of hours worked by Americans, "almost entirely because workers will choose to supply less labor--given the new taxes and other incentives they will face and the financial benefits some will receive." The total number of "reduced hours" translates into roughly 2 million fewer people working in 2017, and 2.5 million fewer people working by 2024.A couple weeks ago, Greg Sargent demonstrated how this was playing out in Kentucky polls.
Republican short-hand for these reports: Obama's policies kill jobs.
But, one is going to be an easier sell for Republicans than the other.
Democrats were quick to push back on claims by the GOP that Obamacare is a "job killer." And, to be sure, the CBO report says no such thing. However, there are plenty of ways for Republicans to turn the "2 million fewer jobs" line into attack ads. And, given the already pessimistic views of the American public about the law, it's likely to be effective. When less than 30 percent of Americans think that the health care law will "be good for the country" it's not a stretch for them to believe that implementation of the new health care law is going to have a negative impact on the economy and/or jobs. Voters have been fed a steady diet of bad news about the health care law and are already primed to believe the worst.
On raising the minimum wage, however, voters' views are more positive. Recent national polls show support for raising the minimum wage to $10.10/hr in the low-70's. When asked if they think a rise in the minimum wage will reduce the number of jobs available, just 41 percent of those in a recent CBS poll thought that it would, while a majority (54 percent) disagreed. Unlike Obamacare, Americans' perceptions about the minimum wage are in line with Democrats. More Americans simply think that a rise in the minimum wage is a good thing for the economy.
In fact, says one prominent labor strategist, this is a fight Democrats should want to have with Republicans.First, says this strategist, the issue divides Republicans. A poll conducted for the AFL-CIO by Hart Research in early February in five battleground states (Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Wisconsin) found a significant class divide among Republicans on these issues. For example, sixty-five percent of Republicans making less than $50,000/year agreed with the statement that it should be a "priority to make sure employers pay a living wage." Only 35 percent of those making more than $50,000/year agreed. In pushing against a rise in the minimum wage, Republicans risk turning off many of their own voters. Democrats, say this strategist, are united on the issue, regardless of their economic standing.
Another risk for Republicans is that a mishandling of the issue widens their "economic empathy gap" problem. Even as voters express dissatisfaction with President Obama's handling of the economy, they still see Democrats as more sympathetic to and more in touch with the economic concerns of average Americans. Any Republican who argues--or is made to look like he/she agrees with the idea--that paying the working poor more money is bad for the economy, is going to look out of touch to most voters.
Finally, and perhaps most important for Democrats, is that this is an issue that motivates the base (which they desperately need this fall), without alienating the middle. The most recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll found that 51 percent of Americans thought raising the minimum wage should be an "absolute priority" this year, including 76 percent of Democrats, 79 percent of African Americans, 60 percent of Latinos, and 51 percent of independents.
In an interview, Grimes pollster Mark Mellman noted that the minimum wage would be key to appealing to a crucial demographic-- downscale women. “The minimum wage affects a lot of people-- particularly a lot of women-- in Kentucky,” Mellman said. “Women are the majority of the vote in Kentucky. As a group, they are more hostile to Mitch McConnell than men are. They are a critically important base for any Democrat, particularly a female Democrat. Downscale voters in these states tend to be very important swing voters-- particularly downscale women.”All that said, Speaker Boehner, hasn't changed his mind since telling the far right propaganda sheet, Weekly Standard, that “I’ll commit suicide before I vote on a clean minimum-wage bill." This is way back when he was handing out bribes for Big Tobacco on the floor of the House. Watch this sleazy character in action:
McConnell’s opposition to a minimum wage hike, Mellman said, “communicates something larger-- that he’s not interested in economic opportunity for the middle class or those struggling to join it.”
He gets to decide if there'll even be a vote on the minimum wage. The Hill reports that "Some Democrats are optimistic Boehner will cave and allow a vote this year, but the record shows there is little if any daylight between the pro-business Speaker and his conservative conference on this issue." But Boehner has a long history of voting against minimum wage increases, even when he cuts bargains to include tax cuts for his wealthy patrons in the bills! So the House Dems are trying to be seen forcing a vote through a discharge petition (which would need a couple dozen Republicans signing on; fat chance of that ever happening). In fact, it's more likely that Boehner is contemplating retirement. All that bribery from Big Business has left him plenty wealthy and able to retire in luxury (net worth could be as much as $6 million). Yesterday, Chris Cillizza started talking openly what many have been whispering about all year. And, besides, he just bought a new $835,000 condo in an exclusive community in Marco Island, Florida.
Politically speaking, the timing of Boehner buying a condo in Florida days after he broke with his conference to push-- and vote for-- a clean debt-ceiling increase is hard to simply dismiss. It could, of course, be simple coincidence. But, it's been our experience that coincidences are few and far between in politics. (Ambitious politician just happens to agree to do a fundraiser in Iowa. Coincidence? Um, no.)
Even if Boehner sided with the conservative bloc of his conference on every issue between now and November, he would likely face a real fight to be renominated as speaker in the 114th Congress given how close he came to being forced to a second ballot in the 113th. (Is there anyone who can argue that Boehner's actions over the past two years have improved his image among the tea party wing of the House GOP?)Boehner is not only a political pragmatist-- you don't get to be the speaker of the House unless you are-- but also someone with a political resume uniquely suited to understanding when it's time to go. Remember that Boehner was ousted as Republican Conference Chairman by then-Rep. J.C. Watts (Okla.) following the 1998 election. This is someone who grasps, at a very personal level, the importance and power of going out on your own terms.
