Is The Tea Party Making Normal Conservatives Quit? Take Jon Runyon (R-NJ)

Run off by some goofballs in tri-corner hats?

New Jersey's third congressional district, a swath of the south-central part of the state starting between Toms River and Asbury Park and crossing clear to the Philadelphia suburbs through the Pine Barrens, really is a Democratic congressional district-- despite having a Republican congressman, Jon Runyan. Last year Runyan beat the candidate the DCCC recruited-- and then failed to back-- Shelley Adler, the widow of the Blue Dog Democrat Runyan originally beat in 2010, another victim of the Great Blue Dog Apocalyopse. Last year, while Obama and Senator Bob Menendez were scoring over 52 points in the district in their reelection bids, Runyan beat Adler 54-45%. That said-- and even though the district lost Democratic Cherry Hill and picked up some Burlington County red-leaning townships-- NJ-03 shouldn't be a home to a Republican congressman. Poor strategy, incompetent recruiting, abysmal follow-though-- courtesy of Steve Israel and his DCCC-- doomed the district to 2 more years of Republican dominance last year.

But this cycle, nothing was going Runyan's way. He got sucked into the GOP government shut down-- something that was highly unpopular in South Jersey-- and his constituents were not happy about it.

Reelection just got more complicated for Republicans from the moderate Philadelphia suburbs.

After a 16-day government shutdown, Republican poll numbers have plunged across the nation as the GOP bears the brunt of the public's wrath.

Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick of Bucks County, South Jersey's Jon Runyan, from Burlington County, and Frank LoBiondo, of Atlantic County, face the most serious threats in 2014.

During that period a MoveOn/PPP survey of NJ-03 voters showed that when made aware of Runyon's backing for his party's decision to shut down the government, a generic Democrat would be a pick of a plurality of voters, the Democrat beating him 47-45%. Fully 52% of voters said that Runyan's backing for the shut down would make their more likely to vote against him in 2014.

Yesterday, Runyan announced he'd had it and would not seek reelection next year. He blamed the largely Confederate Tea Party contingent among his House colleagues.

Runyan, 39, is in just his second term in office after a long NFL career, including a prominent stint with the Eagles. But he has grown frustrated with life in Congress, and particularly the tea party wing that has held increasing sway in the House GOP, according to two New Jersey Republican sources. "There's no common sense," one source said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because Runyan had not yet made an official announcement… [O]one New Jersey Republican said Runyan's frustration began early this year when conservatives blocked a vote on aid for superstorm Sandy-- a storm that hammered his district-- and continued during the recent government shutdown, which he opposed. Another GOP source said he had become frustrated with Washington's gridlock.

Burlington County Freeholder Aimee Belgard was ready to take Runyon on and plans to run for the seat. The DCCC is supposedly nonplused and looking around to see if they can find a bigger name candidate, doing to her what they just did to Jessica Ehrlich in Florida.

Meanwhile, the next Republican incumbent to call it quits, probably today, is likely to be octogenarian Howard Coble of North Carolina, who's been in and out of hospitals for the last few years. He's the longest-serving North Carolina congressman in history, having been first elected in 1984.

Longtime Congressman Howard Coble has called a news conference at the Guilford County GOP headquarters on Thursday “to announce his future political plans,” according to an announcement by his office Wednesday.

There has been much speculation this year that Coble, 82, will not seek a 16th term. He was had health issues recently, and he has not been raising campaign funds.

There has already been interest in his 6th District seat by a number of Republicans, including District Attorney Phil Berger Jr., who is the son of Senate President Pro Tem Phil Berger. Berger said he would run if Coble doesn’t.

Nathan Tabor, a former Forsyth County Republican Party chairman, has announced he plans to run.

Laura Fjeld, a former high-ranking official for the University of North Carolina system, has filed as a Democrat for the congressional seat, which covers all of five counties and portions of five others, including Durham, Granville and Durham counties.

The district, covering a north-central chunk of the state and including the whiter parts of Greensboro and High Point, has a PVI of R+10. Obama only managed 41% there last year and Coble was reelected with 61%. There are also a couple of Tea Party nut jobs who have declared but the nomination is likely to go to Berger, Jr. Short of the widespread hatred for his father spilling over onto him, this is probably a safe Republican seat, especially with a dull conservative-leaning Democratic opponent incapable of inspiring anyone at all outside of immediate friends and family and DCCC consultants and vendors looking to enrich themselves.