No doubt, if you read DWT with any regularity, you've noticed that we keep an eye on the DCCC. We rarely have much to say about the NRCC, not because they're any better than the DCCC or less corrupt or incompetent, but,… who cares what they do? Unlike the DCCC, the worse the NRCC are, the better for normal Americans. Yesterday, though, they announced their 36 top districts for 2014 challengers, the "The On The Radar" list. The crème de la crème of this dreck will graduate eventually to the Young Guns list.
Four of the Radar Republicans are ex-Members looking for rematches against Democratic incumbents who ousted them in 2012:
• (IL-10) Robert Dold vs Brad Schneider- D+8Maloney and Bustos have voted far more frequently with the Republicans than other conservative Democrats. Schneider, a New Dem, like Maloney, is also usually a pretty wasy pick-up for Boehner and Cantor on crucial roll calls. On Shea-Porter, sticks to a progressive, values-driven agenda.
• (IL-17) Bobby Schilling vs Cheri Bustos- D+7
• (NH-01) Frank Guinta vs Carol Shea-Porter- R+1
• (NY-18)- Nan Hayworth vs Sean Patrick Maloney- PVI is even
The motley crew of mostly second and third tier GOP candidates follows:
• (AR-02)- French Hill in the seat Tim Griffith is abandoning- R+8The bolded districts have likely to be won by Republicans. So, when you hear Democrats saying they only have to win back 17 seats to regain control of the House, that isn't exactly accurate. Even if they only lose the obvious half dozen or so seats-- and that is extremely optimistic-- they really do need a minimum of two dozen seats to eject Boehner from the Speaker's chair. Could it happen? Yes… but not while Steve Israel is chairman of the DCCC-- and the Republicans know it.
• (AR-04)- Tommy Moll and Bruce Westerman in the seat Tom Cotton is giving up to run for the Senate- R+15
• (AZ-01)- Andy Tobin vs Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick- R+4
• (AZ-02)- Rematch between Martha McSally and Rep. Ron Barber, although he may chicken out- R+3
• (AZ-09)- Wendy Rogers and Andrew Walter competing to challenge one of the worst Democratic incumbents, Kyrsten Sinema- R+1
• (CA-03)- Dan Logue vs Rep. John Garamendi- D+3
• (CA-07)- bitter GOP civil war between Doug Ose, Elizabeth Emken and Igor Birman to take on weak conservative incumbent Ami Bera- PVI is even
• (CA-26)- rematch between Tony Strickland and Rep. Julia Brownley (unless Strickland runs away from the race and completes a deal with McKeon in the district next door- D+4
• (CA-36)- Brian Nestande vs Rep. Raul Ruiz- R+1
• (CA 45)- Pat Maciariello and Mimi Walters for the safe red seat John Campbell is giving up- R+7
• (CA-52)- Fred Simon and Carl DeMaio vs weak multimillionaire New Dem Scott Peters- D+2
• (CT-04)- Dan Debicella vs Wall Street shill/New Dem Jim Himes- D+5
• (FL-26)- Carlos Curbelo vs New Dem Rep. Joe Garcia- R+1
• (GA-12)- Rick Allen vs reactionary Blue Dog John Barrow- R+9
• (IL-11)- Darlene Senger vs New Dem Bill Foster- D+8
• (IL-12)- Mike Bost vs conservative Rep Bill Enyart- PVI is even
• (MA-06)- rematch between Richard Tisei and John Tierney- D+4
• (ME-02)-Bruce Poliquin and Kevin Raye for the seat Mike Michaud is giving up to run for governor- D+2
• (MN-08)- degenerate multimillionaire Stewart Mills vs progressive Rep Richard Nolan- D+1
• (NC-07)- Rematch between David Rouzer and Blue Dog Mike McIntyre- R+12
• (NH-02)- Gary Lambert vs weak New Dem Rep. Ann Kuster- D+3
• (NY-01)- Lee Zeldin vs Rim Bishop- R+2
• (NY-21)- Elise Stefanik vs reactionary New Dem Bill Owens- PVI is even
• (WV-03)- Evan Jenkins vs conservative Rep Nick Rahall- R+14
• (UT-04)- rematch between Mia Love and reactionary Blue Dog Jim Matheson- R+16
The only congressional district in the country with a PVI of zero that isn't being fought over by the NRCC or the DCCC is NY-03. Steve Israel's Long Island district. A Republican could easily beat him if the NRCC engaged, like they do in every other 8 districts with zero PVIs. Obama won every one of the 9 districts in 2008 and all but one-- IL-13-- in 2012. But as Steve Israel's personal moral shortcomings and thunderous corruption becomes more widely known throughout the district, it's crazy for the GOP to just keep giving him a free pass. Straight-arrow Republican Stephen Labate is challenging him again but the NRCC is ignoring the race. Why? Is there a deal? Everyone says there is. Israel studiously ignores vulnerable districts of powerful senior Republicans-- even though the Democrats CANNOT win back the House without taking at least a handful of them-- in return for the NRCC letting him sail back into office. Among the top vulnerable Republicans being protected by the DCCC on Israel's orders are this baker's dozen of happy campers:
• Fred Upton (MI-06), Chair of the Energy and Commerce Committee- R+1Thats'a dozen vulnerable senior Republican policymakers-- not hapless backbenchers-- who Israel is granting get-out-of-jail-free cards in return for his own free pass against Stephen Labate. Blue America is keeping the pressure on Israel to get serious about winning these seats. If you hear from a DCCC rep on the phone, please tell them to get serious.
• John Kline (MN-02), Chair of the Education and Labor Committee- R+2
• Mike Rogers (MI-08), Chair of the Intelligence Committee-R+2
• Buck McKeon (CA-25), Chair of the House Armed Services Committee- R+3
• Paul Ryan (WI-01), Chair of the House Budget Committee- R+3
• Michael Turner (OH-10), Chair of the Subcommittee on Strategic Forces- R+3
• Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL-27), Chair of the Subcommittee on the Middle East- R+2
• Joe Pitts (PA-16) Chair of the Energy Subcommittee on Health- R+4
• Dave Reichert (WA-08), Chair Ways and Means Subcommittee on Human Resources- R+1
• Darrell Issa (CA-49), chairman of the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform- R+4
• Peter Roskam (IL-06), GOP Chief Deputy Whip- R+4
• John Mica (FL-07), ex-Chair of Transportation and Infrastructure Committee- R+4
